How did Bush win Ohio in 2004?

The 2004 US Election was one of the most contentious in recent history. Scores of voters went to the polls. Many hated John Kerry and many hated President Bush.

Ohio was a battleground state. Its electoral college votes were important to both candidates and either one had to win Ohio in order to win the election.

In this case George Bush won. His 118,000 vote margin is a nail biter by any measure when 71% of eligible voters actually went to the polls in November.

The Bush win was a shocker because the Democrats had scores of volunteers drumming up support and the various polls showed that except for the "war on terror", most didn't see Bush doing a good job. It also didn't help that some erroneous exit polling was released early in the day on election day showing a Kerry victory.

On May 15th, 2005, the Columbus Dispatch published a detailed analysis of the vote that day based on information from the Secretary of State's office. The articles and graphics are available from this page.

It shows that while Kerry won the major cities, except Cincinnati, Bush and the GOP crushed Kerry in the rural areas. They did it by a massive get-to-the-polls push in the 3 days before the election. The GOP targeted likely Bush voters using marketing data.

The other points found that led to the Bush victory in November: it was the first presidential election since the Sept. 11 terrorist attack, the country was at "war", Bush had a unique relationship with religious conservatives, and state Issue 1 was on the Ohio ballot (banning Gay marriage).

Basically I am presenting this mini-site to lay to rest the continued fascination with disgruntled Kerry supporters that the election was stolen by some vast conspiracy.

The Democrats simply got outworked by the GOP in the final days and they failed to win the rural areas where the war on terror and gay marriage were much more important than their own economic well being.

Enjoy!

How Bush pulled it off in Ohio

Snapshots of the vote

Charts and Graphs

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