In my younger days, I had bullies causing me all sorts of problems. A favorite tactic that I fell for several times would be where the bully would act nice toward me for no apparent reason. Once I was sucked in – WHAM! – a sucker punch to the gut.
That is how I felt at 3:30 am on November 3rd when it was clear that George W. Bush would be getting a second term as President in the 2004 Presidential election.
Bush, who is an political idiot, who was accepted to Yale only as a legacy, who is ignorant of the rest of the world, who on the influence of neo-conservative fascists invaded Iraq to settle a score and force democracy on a culture who doesn’t know what that really is, who’s job approval rating has been below 50% for most of the year, who scored lower than challenger John Kerry in almost every category in a pre-election poll on November 1st, who claims God speaks to him in an obvious effort to pander to the country’s evangelical Christians, who’s “war on terrorism” is not a declared war and is in fact a war on our civil rights though the Patriot Act, and who is not trusted by a majority of the rest of the world – pulled off the most mind numbing election victory since Truman beat Dewey in 1948.
Not only did “Monkey Boy” win the Electoral College vote but also won the popular vote by almost 4 million.
The talking pinheads in the media noted 3 areas that helped him win. There continues to be a shift in population to the south and west from the Northeast and Midwest. A resurgence in religious belief. And the war on terrorism.
Very early in the morning on November 3rd with Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, and New Mexico still out, the math showed that if the states voted as they did in 2000, Bush would gain 7 electoral votes just from the population change since 2000. The population change was an issue in 2000 yet Al Gore won the popular vote so the population change was not a significant reason Bush won.
The pandering to the conservative religious voters in the rural breadbasket and south was also there in 2000. The Democrats knew that was a concern and that is why Gore picked Joe Lieberman, a Jewish conservative, to allow them to pander to cultural issues. Religion in 2004 was not a significant factor in Bush’s victory. Although it was more of a factor than the population shift.
The issue that seemed to tip the election, in my view, was the war on terror. Specifically the occupation of Iraq. The poll that showed Bush was not doing a good job overall and he didn’t plan the Iraq operation very well, also expressed the respondents idea that Iraq was part of the war on terror, the invasion was necessary, that the invasion made the US safer, and that Bush was the guy to finish the job. None of that is factually true. Iraq didn’t attack us. There was no reason in 2003 to invade and it has not made us safer. With the main terrorist ring leader Bin Laden on the loose, all the war in Iraq has done is created a hostile meat grinder for our young men and women in the military.
At one point late in the election season, most Republican talking heads were actually arguing that the Iraq war was a good thing because they would rather the terrorists kill innocents in Iraq than on US soil. Iraq is now a safety valve?
Yes, my head hurts too. Like I said, based on the feelings of the electorate, Bush shouldn’t have won. My hometown paper, The Columbus Dispatch, gave Bush their grudging endorsement based only on the fact that Bush was the current occupant.
How else can one explain the 5% gain Bush got from the women’s vote (48%) and the unchanged 23% of the gay/lesbian vote? Two groups, who’s issues Bush has been on the wrong side of during his first term, still supported the guy.
Some of my friends felt that John Kerry’s campaign failed to deal with the negative mud slinging flung Kerry’s way such as the Medal controversy and the Swift Boat Vets. That is not what brought the victory to Bush. The pre-election polls showed that voters respected Kerry’s service. The only issue they had with him was they didn’t really know who he was and what he stood for. In an effort not to piss anyone off the campaign tried to be all things to all people. Voters knew where Bush stood on the issues. His positions hadn’t changed in more than 3 years. It just so happened that his position on terrorism and Iraq matched enough of the electorate’s views to get him the victory.
Still it was the fact that almost 4 million people, who were educated enough to vote, voted against their best interest for reasons that have proven to be false under every challenge, that handed George W. Bush, his stunning victory. Their lack of rational decision making will not be a good time for the 55 million people who voted against Bush at least for the next 2 years and probably for the entire 2nd term.
What is next for the Democrats?
Bill Clinton. Not literarily him but a candidate with the same background.
The Dems will have to support someone who is from the south or west who is on the conservative side on value issues or who at least speaks their language. Someone from the Northeast, like Kerry, may be able to bring in the cash but outside of the urban areas they are simply unelectable.
There is a possibly that John McCain could run in 2008 for the GOP. I would vote for him because he is able to appear moderate while still supporting the GOP base. He would have the appeal of Reagan. The Democrats MUST be able to field a candidate with similar broad appeal. The days of Northeastern liberalism as a strong force in the Democratic party is over.
Bill Clinton started the New Democrats group that was able to get him elected twice to office and they did it by joining the liberal and conservative elements together. I remember my more liberal friends were livid about that because they believed that only a Dem who was a dyed in the wool liberal should lead the party. The elections of 2000 and 2004 shows that reasoning is false and they will continue to lose elections if they don’t try to build broad appeal.
The only thing those of us who supported Kerry can hope for is either the GOP playing their hand too far as they did with the Contract for America, an economy that goes all the way into the dumper, or a morass in Iraq with maybe a widening into Iran.
They need to focus in the short term on local and Congressional races.